Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting4-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Cardinals- Matt CarpenterBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Carpenter homered to center (436 feet).6–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 7Tovar homered to left (385 feet), Doyle scored.6–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 7Doyle singled to left, Blackmon scored.4–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 6Arenado singled to left, Goldschmidt scored, Arenado to second.3–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 6Goldschmidt grounded into fielder's choice to first, Carlson scored. Carpenter and Burleson scored on throwing error by first baseman Montero, Goldschmidt to second.3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 6Cave singled to center, Montero scored.3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Tovar homered to left (393 feet).2–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Tovar singled to left, Blackmon scored, Tovar out stretching at second, Doyle to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- STL 65%
- ML COL +175 / STL -210
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- STL: Elo 63.2%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -186
- COL +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.6 – 4.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1433 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −32 | +2 | COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 1.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +94 Elo | STL 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.924th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 29th of 309–24 | Road vs home | 14–1313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–29 | 29–32 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 9–16 |
| Underdog | 30–27 | 20–16 |
| Overs–unders | 34–26 | 27–32–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–4 STL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.