Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Donovan homered to right (372 feet).3–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 5Cruz singled to left, Grandal scored and Taylor scored, Reynolds to second.3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Reynolds reached on infield single to pitcher, Suwinski scored, Taylor to second, Grandal to third.1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 4Pagés singled to right, Fermín scored.0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 3Goldschmidt homered to center (404 feet), Winn scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 51%
- ML PIT -115 / STL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- PIT: Elo 51.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -104
- STL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.3 – 4.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −4 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.92 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +7 Elo | PIT 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.924th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.521st of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 17th of 3016–18 | Road vs home | 16–1513th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–33 | 32–33 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–19 | 11–17 |
| Underdog | 24–14 | 21–16 |
| Overs–unders | 35–30 | 28–35–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 10–5 STL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.