Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Henry DavisBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Davis homered to center (412 feet).2–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 5Donovan singled to left, Arenado scored, Herrera to third.1–4
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 5Taylor singled to center, N. Gonzales scored.1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Winn grounded into fielder's choice to third, Donovan scored, Siani out at second, Carlson to third.0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 4Carlson reached on infield single to shortstop, Herrera scored, Donovan to second.0–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Arenado doubled to left, Goldschmidt scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- STL 61%
- ML PIT +145 / STL -170
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- STL: Elo 54.5%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- STL -154
- PIT +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.8 – 4.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +9 | PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +32 Elo | STL 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 61.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.924th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 14th of 3016–17 | Road vs home | 15–1514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–32 | 31–33 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–19 | 10–17 |
| Underdog | 24–13 | 21–16 |
| Overs–unders | 35–29 | 28–34–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 10–4 STL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.