Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Tim AndersonBatting3-4
- Huascar BrazobanPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Nationals- Lane ThomasBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 6Winker singled to center, Young scored, Thomas safe at third, Winker to second on fielding error by center fielder Chisholm Jr..1–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 3Abrams singled to left, L. García Jr. scored and Meneses scored, Senzel to second.1–7
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–7
- 3Meneses singled to center, Winker scored and Rosario scored.1–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Thomas homered to left (379 feet), Young scored and Abrams scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Fortes reached on infield single to third, T. Anderson scored, Myers to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 63%
- ML MIA +160 / WSH -185
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- WSH: Elo 56.0%, market 62.8%
- Fair odds
- WSH -169
- MIA +169 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.7 – 4.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +3 | MIA: Shaun Anderson (no track record yet) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +42 Elo | WSH 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 58.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 62.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.023rd of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 27th of 3011–20 | Road vs home | 13–1725th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–42 | 41–27 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–18 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 25–24 | 38–25 |
| Overs–unders | 36–31–1 | 31–36–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 11–6 WSH in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 17.