St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Pedro PagesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-3
- Jameson TaillonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Busch singled to left, Happ scored.2–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Pagés homered to left center, Crawford scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 54%
- ML STL +110 / CHC -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- CHC: Elo 55.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -119
- STL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 5.1 – 5.4 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −7 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +35 Elo | CHC 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 18th of 3017–20 | Road vs home | 19–1411th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–35 | 36–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–18 | 9–21 |
| Underdog | 22–17 | 27–14 |
| Overs–unders | 28–38–2 | 31–39–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 8–9 CHC in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.