St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Happ homered to left center (376 feet), Tauchman scored and Bellinger scored.1–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4Swanson grounded out to catcher, Suzuki scored, Hoerner to second.1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Bellinger scored on error, Hoerner safe at first on fielding error by pitcher Roycroft, Suzuki safe at third on error.1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Arenado hit sacrifice fly to center, Burleson scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 62%
- ML STL +155 / CHC -185
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- CHC: Elo 57.4%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -166
- STL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.7 – 4.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +14 | STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +52 Elo | CHC 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 60.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.521st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 16th of 3017–19 | Road vs home | 18–1411th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–34 | 35–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–18 | 8–21 |
| Underdog | 22–16 | 27–14 |
| Overs–unders | 28–37–2 | 31–38–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 8–8 CHC in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.