Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Nationals- Jacob YoungBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Vargas doubled to right, Senzel scored.1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 5Young homered to left center (403 feet).1–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 5Chisholm Jr. reached on infield single to second, Rivera scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Thomas homered to center (393 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 53%
- ML MIA +105 / WSH -125
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- WSH: Elo 57.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- WSH -114
- MIA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.1 – 4.4 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +6 | MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +51 Elo | WSH 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 27th of 3011–22 | Road vs home | 15–1721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–44 | 43–27 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–18 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 25–26 | 38–25 |
| Overs–unders | 37–32–1 | 32–37–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 11–8 WSH in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 19.