Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jake BurgerBatting2-4
- Trevor RogersPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Nationals- Joey MenesesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- DJ HerzPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 13 K
Scoring summary
- 8Meneses homered to left (367 feet), Abrams scored.0–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Thomas homered to center (378 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Meneses hit sacrifice fly to center, Thomas scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 53%
- ML MIA +105 / WSH -125
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.1 pts
- WSH: Elo 58.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- WSH -114
- MIA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.1 – 4.4 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −3 | MIA: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · WSH: DJ Herz: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +59 Elo | WSH 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.6 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 27th of 3011–21 | Road vs home | 14–1723rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–43 | 42–27 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–18 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 25–25 | 38–25 |
| Overs–unders | 37–31–1 | 32–36–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 11–7 WSH in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 18.