St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting2-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching7.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Braxton GarrettPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 12Gordon tripled to right, Burger scored.7–6
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–6
- 12Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–5
- 12Winn homered to left (386 feet), Pagés scored.7–5
- 12Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–5
- 12Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 12Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 12Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 12Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 11J. Sánchez grounded out to shortstop, Myers scored.5–5
- 11Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–5
- 11Pitch 7 : Ball 35–4
- 11Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 11Pitch 5 : Ball 25–4
- 11Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball 15–4
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–4
- 11Carlson hit sacrifice fly to center, Burleson scored.5–4
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 8De La Cruz homered to right center (409 feet), Lopez scored and Chisholm Jr. scored.4–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 8Donovan singled to left, Herrera scored.4–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 8Herrera tripled to right, Winn scored and Goldschmidt scored.3–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 21–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 6Chisholm Jr. tripled to right, Anderson scored.1–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 59%
- ML STL -155 / MIA +135
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- STL: Elo 53.7%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- STL -143
- MIA +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.1 – 3.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −3 | STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +26 Elo | STL 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.529th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 15th of 3018–20 | Road vs home | 12–2529th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–35 | 26–45 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 11–18 | 1–18 |
| Underdog | 23–17 | 25–27 |
| Overs–unders | 28–39–2 | 37–33–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 6–4 MIA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.