Los Angeles Angels at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose MartePitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Giants- Jorge SolerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Spencer BivensPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stefanic doubled to right, Schanuel scored and Adell scored, Tucker to third.6–13
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–13
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–13
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 34–13
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–13
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–13
- 9Adell singled to left, Thaiss scored, Schanuel to second.4–13
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–13
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–13
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–13
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 23–13
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–13
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–13
- 9Neto hit sacrifice fly to left, Calhoun scored.3–13
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–13
- 8Wisely grounded into fielder's choice to second, Brooks scored, Estrada out at second.2–13
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–13
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–13
- 8Brooks singled to left, Soler scored.2–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–12
- 8Soler hit a ground rule double, Conforto scored.2–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–10
- 7Slater homered to center (415 feet).2–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–9
- 4Slater singled to center, Flores scored.2–9
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–9
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 32–8
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–8
- 4Soler homered to left center (377 feet), Bailey scored and Chapman scored.2–8
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 60%
- ML LAA +140 / SF -165
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- SF: Elo 55.5%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- SF -149
- LAA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.8 – 4.7 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +3 | LAA: Ben Joyce (no track record yet) · SF: Erik Miller: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +39 Elo | SF 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 18th of 3017–19 | Road vs home | 19–1714th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–31 | 36–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–13 | 14–19 |
| Underdog | 38–18 | 22–15 |
| Overs–unders | 38–32 | 37–32–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 4–1 SF in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.