Los Angeles Angels at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Randy RodriguezPitching2.2 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ramos homered to center (422 feet), Ahmed scored and Yastrzemski scored.8–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–3
- 8Yastrzemski doubled to right, Estrada scored, Ahmed to third.8–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking8–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 28–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 8Estrada reached on infield single to second, Soler scored.8–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–2
- 4Estrada grounded into double play, third to first, Flores scored, Conforto to second, Soler out at third.8–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–1
- 4Adell hit sacrifice fly to center, Moniak scored.8–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 27–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 4Neto homered to left center (415 feet), O'Hoppe scored.7–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–0
- 4O'Hoppe doubled to left, Pillar scored.5–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Moniak doubled to right, O'Hoppe scored and Pillar scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Pillar doubled to right, Ward scored on throwing error by right fielder Slater.2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Stefanic singled to right, Neto scored, Moniak to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 59%
- ML LAA +135 / SF -155
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- SF: Elo 56.4%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- SF -143
- LAA +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.4 – 4.1 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +7 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Spencer Howard: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +45 Elo | SF 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 61.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3015–19 | Road vs home | 19–1512th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–31 | 36–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–13 | 14–17 |
| Underdog | 36–18 | 22–15 |
| Overs–unders | 37–31 | 36–31–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 2–1 SF in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.