Los Angeles Angels at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Taylor WardBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose SuarezPitching2.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Randal GrichukBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Thaiss doubled to center, Moniak scored, Calhoun to third.4–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–9
- 7Gurriel Jr. singled to left, Marte scored and Perdomo scored, Moreno to second.3–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–7
- 7Moreno singled to right, Carroll scored, Marte to second, Perdomo to third.3–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 6Moreno doubled to center, Marte scored.3–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 6Ward homered to left (391 feet).3–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 5Grichuk scored on Fulmer wild pitch, Carroll to second on wild pitch by Fulmer, Suárez to third on wild pitch by Fulmer.2–5
- 5Grichuk scored on Fulmer wild pitch, Carroll to second on wild pitch by Fulmer, Suárez to third on wild pitch by Fulmer.2–5
- 3Grichuk homered to left center (410 feet), Moreno scored.2–4
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Pillar hit a ground rule double, Ward scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Ward doubled to center, Stefanic scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 58%
- ML LAA +130 / ARI -150
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- ARI: Elo 59.0%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- ARI -138
- LAA +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.4 – 5.1 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −7 | LAA: Jose Suarez: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · ARI: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +63 Elo | ARI 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.68th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3014–17 | Road vs home | 15–1618th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–29 | 31–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–13 | 11–18 |
| Underdog | 35–16 | 20–17 |
| Overs–unders | 34–31 | 32–33–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 1–2 ARI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.