Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting2-4
- Ryne NelsonPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Padres- Jake CronenworthBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Matt WaldronPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Higashioka homered to center (403 feet).1–13
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–13
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–12
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–12
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 31–12
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–12
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–12
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–12
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–12
- 5D. Peralta doubled to right, Cronenworth scored and Profar scored.1–12
- 5Pitch 9 : Ball In Play1–12
- 5Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–10
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–10
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 31–10
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–10
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–10
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–10
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–10
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–10
- 5Solano hit sacrifice fly to right, Arraez scored, Profar to third.1–10
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–10
- 5Cronenworth singled to left, Higashioka scored, Profar to second, Arraez to third.1–9
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 5Suárez singled to left, Walker scored, Alexander to second, Gurriel Jr. to third.1–8
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 4Merrill doubled to left, D. Peralta scored.0–8
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–8
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 30–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–7
- 4Cronenworth homered to center (422 feet), Tatis Jr. scored and Profar scored.0–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–7
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 59%
- ML ARI +135 / SD -155
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- SD: Elo 57.8%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- SD -143
- ARI +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.4 – 4.1 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +4 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Matt Waldron: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +54 Elo | SD 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 20th of 3015–18 | Road vs home | 14–1925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–34 | 35–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–18 | 16–24 |
| Underdog | 19–16 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 30–33–1 | 34–32–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 9–9 SD in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 18.