Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Padres- Kyle HigashiokaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Marte singled to left, Carroll scored on error, Marte safe at second on fielding error by left fielder Profar.4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 5Cronenworth doubled to left, Arraez scored on error and Tatis Jr. scored on throwing error by left fielder Gurriel Jr..3–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 5Higashioka homered to left (376 feet).3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Moreno homered to left (388 feet).3–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Suárez homered to center (408 feet).2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Walker doubled to center, Carroll scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 51%
- ML ARI -105 / SD -115
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- SD: Elo 55.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -104
- ARI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.2 – 4.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +1 | ARI: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +40 Elo | SD 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 21st of 3014–17 | Road vs home | 13–1825th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–33 | 34–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–18 | 15–23 |
| Underdog | 18–15 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 29–32–1 | 33–31–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 8–8 SD in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.