Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Padres- Jurickson ProfarBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Michael KingPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Solano singled to center, Azocar scored.3–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–9
- 8Profar doubled to right, Kim scored, Tatis Jr. scored and Campusano scored.3–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–9
- 8Campusano singled to right, Merrill scored, Kim to third.3–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 7Gurriel Jr. homered to left (361 feet).3–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 7Marte homered to left (347 feet), Carroll scored.2–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 20–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 6Kim homered to center (405 feet), D. Peralta scored.0–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 4Campusano singled to center, Kim scored.0–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Profar homered to right (357 feet).0–2
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 54%
- ML ARI +110 / SD -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- SD: Elo 55.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -119
- ARI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.1 – 3.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +4 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +37 Elo | SD 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 17th of 3015–17 | Road vs home | 13–1925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–33 | 34–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–18 | 15–24 |
| Underdog | 19–15 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 29–33–1 | 33–32–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 9–8 SD in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 17.