Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Jake McCarthyBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tommy HenryPitching2.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Padres- Jurickson ProfarBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Adam MazurPitching3.0 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 4Suárez singled to center, Gurriel Jr. scored, McCarthy to second.9–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–3
- 4Walker singled to center, Marte scored.8–3
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play8–3
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 38–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 28–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 18–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 3Profar homered to left (384 feet).7–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 2Campusano singled to left, Solano scored, Merrill to second, D. Peralta to third.7–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 2McCarthy homered to right (351 feet), Gurriel Jr. scored.7–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 17–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 2Gurriel Jr. doubled to left, Marte scored and Pederson scored.5–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 2Pederson singled to right, Carroll scored and Newman scored, Marte to third.3–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 1Tatis Jr. homered to center (410 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Walker singled to left, Carroll scored, Pederson to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 54%
- ML ARI +110 / SD -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- SD: Elo 54.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -119
- ARI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.1 – 4.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −4 | ARI: Scott McGough: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · SD: Adam Mazur: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +31 Elo | SD 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.59th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.112th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3015–19 | Road vs home | 15–1923rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–35 | 36–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–18 | 17–24 |
| Underdog | 19–17 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 31–33–1 | 35–32–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 9–10 SD in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 19.