Los Angeles Angels at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Luis RengifoBatting2-4
- Griffin CanningPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting2-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Pederson singled to center, Moreno scored, Newman to third.1–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–10
- 7Pederson homered to right center (430 feet), Newman scored, Carroll scored and Marte scored.1–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–10
- 7Newman singled to right, Suárez scored and Moreno scored, Newman to second.1–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 4Moniak singled to center, O'Hoppe scored.1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 3Walker homered to left center (464 feet).0–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 1Walker homered to left (404 feet), Marte scored and Pederson scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 64%
- ML LAA +170 / ARI -200
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- ARI: Elo 56.7%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -180
- LAA +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.6 – 4.9 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −5 | LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +47 Elo | ARI 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 59.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3015–18 | Road vs home | 16–1717th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–30 | 32–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–13 | 12–19 |
| Underdog | 36–17 | 20–17 |
| Overs–unders | 36–31 | 34–33–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 2–3 ARI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.