Los Angeles Angels at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching8.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching3.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marte homered to left (410 feet), Newman scored.8–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–1
- 8Walker homered to center (451 feet).8–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 28–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 6Neto doubled to left, Thaiss scored.8–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking7–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–0
- 4Rengifo singled to center, Guillorme scored.7–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–0
- 4Adell homered to left center (434 feet), Neto scored and Moniak scored.6–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 3Calhoun singled to right, Schanuel scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 32–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Neto homered to left (367 feet).2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pillar doubled to left, Rengifo scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 57%
- ML LAA +125 / ARI -145
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- ARI: Elo 58.0%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -133
- LAA +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.9 – 4.6 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +1 | LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ARI: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +56 Elo | ARI 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3014–18 | Road vs home | 16–1615th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–30 | 32–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–13 | 12–18 |
| Underdog | 35–17 | 20–17 |
| Overs–unders | 35–31 | 33–33–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 1–3 ARI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.