Los Angeles Angels at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Keaton WinnPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rengifo singled to center, Schanuel scored.4–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 6O'Hoppe homered to left center (467 feet), Ward scored.3–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 5Ramos doubled to left, Casali scored, Slater to third.1–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 2Moniak homered to center (423 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Ramos homered to left center (402 feet), Slater scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 55%
- ML LAA +115 / SF -135
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- SF: Elo 53.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SF -124
- LAA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.5 – 4.0 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −24 | LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Keaton Winn: team allows 1.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +27 Elo | SF 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 21st of 3016–19 | Road vs home | 19–1612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–31 | 36–33 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–13 | 14–18 |
| Underdog | 37–18 | 22–15 |
| Overs–unders | 38–31 | 37–31–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 3–1 SF in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.