San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Thairo EstradaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jordan HicksPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Estrada homered to left center (370 feet), Soler scored and Yastrzemski scored.7–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–6
- 8Bailey homered to right (433 feet).4–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 33–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 23–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 13–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–6
- 7Happ homered to left (382 feet), Bellinger scored and Suzuki scored.3–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 7Suzuki doubled to left, Wisdom scored, Bellinger to third.3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Estrada hit by pitch, Chapman scored, Soler to second, Conforto to third.3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 7Ramos homered to right center (383 feet).2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 6Busch homered to center (397 feet), Hoerner scored.1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Yastrzemski tripled to right, Soler scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 51%
- ML SF -105 / CHC -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- CHC: Elo 54.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -104
- SF +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 5.2 – 5.3 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +7 | SF: Jordan Hicks: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +34 Elo | CHC 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 24th of 3015–20 | Road vs home | 19–1511th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–34 | 36–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–19 | 9–22 |
| Underdog | 22–15 | 27–14 |
| Overs–unders | 38–32–1 | 31–40–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 1–5 CHC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.