San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Keaton WinnPitching2.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Ahmed hit sacrifice fly to left, Soler scored.5–6
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–6
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball 34–6
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 24–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–6
- 6Flores singled to center, Chapman scored, Soler to second.4–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 5Donovan singled to center, Burleson scored, Goldschmidt to third.3–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 3Burleson scored on Rodríguez wild pitch, Donovan to third on wild pitch by Rodríguez.3–5
- 3Burleson scored on Rodríguez wild pitch, Donovan to third on wild pitch by Rodríguez.3–5
- 3Gorman hit sacrifice fly to center, Winn scored.3–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 3Ramos homered to right, Yastrzemski scored and Wisely scored.3–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Donovan homered to right, Burleson scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Gorman hit sacrifice fly to center, Winn scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 52%
- ML SF -120 / STL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- SF: Elo 48.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -109
- STL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.8 – 4.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | −3 | SF: Keaton Winn: team allows 1.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +10 Elo | STL 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| SF | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.925th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.521st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–35 | 34–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–19 | 11–21 |
| Underdog | 24–16 | 23–17 |
| Overs–unders | 40–33–1 | 30–40–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 6–1 STL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.