San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Curt CasaliBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Morel reached on infield single to shortstop, Happ scored, Bote to second, Swanson to third.2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 8Happ singled to right, Bellinger scored, Suzuki to third.2–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 8Bellinger singled to left, Busch scored, Bellinger to second.2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 5Casali doubled to center, Yastrzemski scored and Soler scored.2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Swanson homered to right center (401 feet), Happ scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 51%
- ML SF -105 / CHC -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- CHC: Elo 51.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -104
- SF +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.7 – 4.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −11 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +10 Elo | CHC 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 24th of 3016–20 | Road vs home | 19–1611th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–34 | 36–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–19 | 9–23 |
| Underdog | 23–15 | 27–14 |
| Overs–unders | 39–32–1 | 32–40–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 2–5 CHC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.