San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Jorge SolerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Spencer BivensPitching2.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Soler homered to left (444 feet), Bailey scored, Chapman scored and Slater scored.5–6
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 21–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 11–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 7Morel scored, Swanson to second on caught stealing error by first baseman Flores, Swanson to first.1–6
- 7Morel scored, Swanson to second on caught stealing error by first baseman Flores, Swanson to first.1–6
- 7Swanson singled to center, Bellinger scored and Hoerner scored, Morel to third.1–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 6Ramos grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Estrada scored, Wisely out at second.1–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 4Crow-Armstrong sacrificed, Busch scored on throwing error by third baseman Chapman, Crow-Armstrong to first on fielding error by third baseman Chapman, Crow-Armstrong to second, Amaya safe at third on0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul0–2
- 4Swanson homered to right center (375 feet).0–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 4Happ homered to center (442 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 10–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 51%
- ML SF -105 / CHC -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- CHC: Elo 51.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -104
- SF +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 5.2 – 5.3 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −28 | SF: Erik Miller: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 1.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +9 Elo | CHC 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 24th of 3016–21 | Road vs home | 20–1611th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–35 | 37–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–19 | 10–23 |
| Underdog | 23–16 | 27–14 |
| Overs–unders | 39–33–1 | 32–41–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 2–6 CHC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.