St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yonny ChirinosPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lopez singled to right, Anderson scored.3–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 7Winn scored on error, Goldschmidt safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Burger, Goldschmidt safe at second on error.3–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 6Myers hit sacrifice fly to right, J. Sánchez scored.2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Donovan singled to right, Arenado scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball 21–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Gorman homered to center (436 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 30–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1J. Sánchez homered to center (417 feet).0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1De La Cruz homered to center (429 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 59%
- ML STL -155 / MIA +135
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- STL: Elo 53.3%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- STL -143
- MIA +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.6 – 3.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −7 | STL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Yonny Chirinos: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +23 Elo | STL 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.629th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.628th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 14th of 3019–21 | Road vs home | 13–2629th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–37 | 28–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–20 | 1–18 |
| Underdog | 23–17 | 27–27 |
| Overs–unders | 30–39–2 | 39–33–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 7–5 MIA in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.