Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Austin RileyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9d'Arnaud hit sacrifice fly to center, Olson scored.3–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 9Laureano singled to right, Ozuna scored, Duvall to second, Olson to third.2–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 5Riley homered to center (421 feet).1–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 3Gorman scored, Donovan caught stealing second, catcher to shortstop to first to first.0–4
- 3Gorman scored, Donovan caught stealing second, catcher to shortstop to first to first.0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 3Donovan singled to right, Contreras scored, Gorman to third.0–3
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 30–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Contreras singled to left, Burleson scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 3Burleson doubled to left, Siani scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 55%
- ML ATL -135 / STL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 56.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -124
- STL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.5 – 4.0 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −9 | ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · STL: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +45 Elo | ATL 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.022nd of 30 |
| 7th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 12th of 3019–19 | Road vs home | 19–1511th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–38 | 37–38 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–34 | 13–21 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 24–17 |
| Overs–unders | 28–44–3 | 33–40–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–2 STL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.