San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Patrick BaileyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Crawford doubled to right, Carlson scored.3–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 13–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 8Slater hit sacrifice fly to right, Estrada scored.3–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 8Flores hit a ground rule double, Chapman scored, Estrada to third.2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Bailey homered to right (425 feet).1–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 2Burleson singled to center, Pagés scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Carpenter singled to right, Donovan scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Donovan hit a ground rule double, Burleson scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Burleson singled to left, Winn scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 54%
- ML SF +110 / STL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- STL: Elo 52.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -119
- SF +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.6 – 3.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +6 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +16 Elo | STL 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.023rd of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 24th of 3016–23 | Road vs home | 18–1512th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–37 | 36–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–20 | 12–21 |
| Underdog | 24–17 | 24–17 |
| Overs–unders | 42–33–1 | 32–40–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 6–3 STL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.