Atlanta Braves at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Jarred KelenicBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max FriedPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Volpe doubled to center, Grisham scored.3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Albies singled to right, Arcia scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 5Kelenic hit sacrifice fly to center, Laureano scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Kelenic homered to right center (383 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 51%
- ML ATL -105 / NYY -115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- NYY: Elo 48.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -104
- ATL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.2 – 4.3 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −11 | ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +8 Elo | ATL 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.63rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +1.44th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 13th of 3018–19 | Road vs home | 24–134th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–38 | 46–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 29–34 | 29–28 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 17–5 |
| Overs–unders | 28–43–3 | 40–38–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–1 NYY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.