Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Jarred KelenicBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Donovan singled to left, Goldschmidt scored.1–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 31–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 8Goldschmidt singled to left, Carlson scored.1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 8Kelenic singled to right, Laureano scored, Short to third.1–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Burleson doubled to right, Siani scored and Winn scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 54%
- ML ATL -130 / STL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 57.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -119
- STL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.4 – 4.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | −21 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.96 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 1.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +51 Elo | ATL 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 10th of 3020–20 | Road vs home | 20–1613th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–39 | 38–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–35 | 13–21 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 25–18 |
| Overs–unders | 29–45–3 | 34–41–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 5–3 STL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.