Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Carson SpiersPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Cruz homered to right center (458 feet), McCutchen scored.5–11
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–11
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 33–11
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–11
- 6De La Cruz homered to center (455 feet), India scored.3–11
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–11
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–9
- 6India doubled to left, Maile scored.3–9
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 6Maile singled to right, Jordan scored, Maile to second.3–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–8
- 5Steer singled to center, De La Cruz scored.3–7
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–7
- 5Pitch 6 : Automatic Ball - PitchTimerViolation-Pitcher 23–6
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 5De La Cruz doubled to center, India scored.3–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul3–5
- 5Cruz grounded into fielder's choice to third, Suwinski scored, Reynolds out at second, Grandal to third.3–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 5Grandal singled to center, Olivares scored, Suwinski to second.2–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 4Jordan hit sacrifice fly to right, Fairchild scored, Espinal to second.1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 55%
- ML PIT +115 / CIN -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- CIN: Elo 53.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -124
- PIT +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.5 – 5.0 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −22 | PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Carson Spiers: team allows 1.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +21 Elo | CIN 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.111th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 14th of 3018–20 | Road vs home | 19–2120th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–38 | 41–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–23 | 17–21 |
| Underdog | 28–15 | 24–15 |
| Overs–unders | 37–38 | 33–43–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 10–6 CIN in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 16.