Boston Red Sox at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rob RefsnyderBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack KellyPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Reds- Stuart FairchildBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Fairchild singled to center, India scored, Espinal to third.7–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–4
- 6Espinal singled to center, Stephenson scored, India to third.7–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 17–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 6Stephenson doubled to center, Steer scored.7–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking7–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–1
- 6Refsnyder homered to left center (401 feet), Duran scored.7–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 6Duran singled to left, Hamilton scored.5–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 14–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 4Candelario singled to left, De La Cruz scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 4Duran doubled to center, Rafaela scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 33–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Rafaela grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, González scored on throwing error by second baseman India, Rafaela to second, Smith out at second.3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Wong homered to left (395 feet), Devers scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 59%
- ML BOS +135 / CIN -155
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- CIN: Elo 53.1%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- CIN -143
- BOS +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.4 – 5.1 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +13 | BOS: Zack Kelly: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +21 Elo | CIN 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 4th of 3023–16 | Road vs home | 19–2018th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–42 | 41–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–26 | 17–20 |
| Underdog | 23–16 | 24–15 |
| Overs–unders | 34–41–2 | 32–43–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–3 CIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.