Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Tyler O'NeillBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Justin TurnerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Schneider homered to left (392 feet).7–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 7Devers hit sacrifice fly to center, Duran scored.7–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–2
- 7Refsnyder doubled to right, Rafaela scored, Duran to third.6–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 26–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 6Turner homered to left center (425 feet).5–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 4Dalbec singled to center, Wong scored, González to second, González safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Kiermaier.5–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 3O'Neill homered to center (400 feet).4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Rafaela homered to left center (420 feet).3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 2Kiner-Falefa hit sacrifice fly to center, Turner scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 32–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Devers homered to left center (424 feet).2–0
- 1Pitch 9 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 54%
- ML BOS +110 / TOR -130
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 49.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -119
- BOS +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.6 – 3.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −8 | BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +1 Elo | BOS 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.924th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 6th of 3019–15 | Road vs home | 18–1614th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–39 | 33–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–24 | 21–23 |
| Underdog | 21–15 | 12–14 |
| Overs–unders | 32–38–2 | 31–38–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 7–6 TOR in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.