Toronto Blue Jays at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Davis SchneiderBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tobias MyersPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kirk hit sacrifice fly to center, Schneider scored, Bichette to third.4–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Bichette reached on infield single to second, Horwitz scored, Schneider to third.3–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 9Horwitz singled to right, Clement scored.2–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Adames homered to center (446 feet), Yelich scored.1–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 6Yelich singled to left, Contreras scored.1–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 6Contreras singled to right, Turang scored.1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 6Perkins stole home, Turang stole second, Turang safe at third on throwing error by catcher Kirk.1–2
- 6Perkins stole home, Turang stole second, Turang safe at third on throwing error by catcher Kirk.1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Schneider homered to right center (401 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 53%
- ML TOR +105 / MIL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 56.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -114
- TOR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.1 – 4.4 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −1 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Tobias Myers: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +44 Elo | MIL 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.97th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 18th of 3017–19 | Road vs home | 19–118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–35 | 38–28 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–21 | 14–17 |
| Underdog | 11–14 | 24–11 |
| Overs–unders | 29–36–1 | 37–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–2 MIL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.