Toronto Blue Jays at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Adames hit sacrifice fly to left, Turang scored, Contreras to second.1–3
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 31–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Adames homered to left center (417 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Chourio homered to left center (388 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Kirk homered to left (405 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 52%
- ML TOR +100 / MIL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 54.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -109
- TOR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.2 – 4.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −8 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +28 Elo | MIL 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.97th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 17th of 3016–18 | Road vs home | 18–107th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–34 | 37–28 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–21 | 13–17 |
| Underdog | 11–13 | 24–11 |
| Overs–unders | 29–35–1 | 37–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–1 MIL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.