Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Athletics- JJ BledayBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hogan HarrisPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bleday homered to right (369 feet).1–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Bichette singled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored.1–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 6Schuemann scored on Bassitt wild pitch, Toro to second on wild pitch by Bassitt.0–1
- 6Schuemann scored on Bassitt wild pitch, Toro to second on wild pitch by Bassitt.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 61%
- ML TOR -175 / OAK +150
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 61.2%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- TOR -159
- OAK +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.3 – 3.2 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1430 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −24 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · OAK: Hogan Harris: team allows 1.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +79 Elo | TOR 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 60.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.728th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3014–17 | Road vs home | 14–1823rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–33 | 30–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–20 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 11–13 | 27–27 |
| Overs–unders | 28–33–1 | 30–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–2 OAK in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.