Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Isiah Kiner-FalefaBatting2-3, 5 RBI
- Bowden FrancisPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch SpencePitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Bleday grounded out to second, Schuemann scored.6–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–4
- 10Kiner-Falefa doubled to center, Bichette scored, Varsho scored and Clement scored.6–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 8Schneider hit sacrifice fly to right, Varsho scored.3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 7Toro reached on outfield single up the middle, Soderstrom scored and Díaz scored, Toro to second.2–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 6Rooker homered to left center (436 feet).2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Kiner-Falefa singled to center, Turner scored and Springer scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 55%
- ML TOR -135 / OAK +115
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 52.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -124
- OAK +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.5 – 4.0 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1429 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −23 | +12 | TOR: Bowden Francis: team allows 1.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · OAK: Mitch Spence: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +20 Elo | TOR 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.628th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | −1.127th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 21st of 3015–18 | Road vs home | 15–1923rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–34 | 31–34 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–21 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 11–13 | 28–28 |
| Overs–unders | 28–35–1 | 30–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 5–3 OAK in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.