Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Kevin KiermaierBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Athletics- Abraham ToroBatting1-4
- Luis MedinaPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Turner singled to center, Bichette scored, Jansen to second.7–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 5Vogelbach scored on O'Loughlin wild pitch, Kiner-Falefa to second, Varsho to third.6–0
- 5Vogelbach scored on O'Loughlin wild pitch, Kiner-Falefa to second on wild pitch by O'Loughlin, Varsho to third on wild pitch by O'Loughlin.6–0
- 5Kiner-Falefa singled to left, Jansen scored, Varsho to second, Vogelbach to third.5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Jansen doubled to left, Bichette scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Bichette doubled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 5Kiermaier homered to right center (405 feet).2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Jansen hit sacrifice fly to left, Horwitz scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 60%
- ML TOR -165 / OAK +140
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 56.4%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- TOR -149
- OAK +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.2 – 3.3 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +2 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · OAK: Luis Medina: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +45 Elo | TOR 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 61.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.728th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 24th of 3014–18 | Road vs home | 15–1823rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–34 | 31–33 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 18–21 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 11–13 | 28–27 |
| Overs–unders | 28–34–1 | 30–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–3 OAK in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.