Toronto Blue Jays at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Spencer HorwitzBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Blake PerkinsBatting2-4
- Carlos RodriguezPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jansen doubled to left, Schneider scored, Horwitz to third.3–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Horwitz singled to right, Kiner-Falefa scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Springer singled to right, Varsho scored, Turner to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 60%
- Fair odds
- MIL -102
- TOR +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.4 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −4 | TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Carlos Rodriguez (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +68 Elo | MIL 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.07th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 19th of 3016–19 | Road vs home | 19–107th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–35 | 38–28 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–21 | 14–17 |
| Underdog | 11–14 | 24–11 |
| Overs–unders | 29–36–1 | 37–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–2 MIL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.