Cleveland Guardians at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting3-4
- Carlos CarrascoPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Isiah Kiner-FalefaBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Bowden FrancisPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 5Varsho grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Jansen scored, Turner out at second, Guerrero Jr. to third.0–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 4Kiner-Falefa singled to center, Springer scored.0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Horwitz singled to left, Springer scored, Barger to third.0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Barger singled to left, Varsho scored, Springer to second.0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Springer singled to center, Turner scored, Varsho to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 54%
- ML CLE +110 / TOR -130
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- TOR: Elo 48.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -119
- CLE +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.1 – 4.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −13 | CLE: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Trevor Richards: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +11 Elo | CLE 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.925th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 4th of 3023–15 | Road vs home | 16–1615th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–25 | 32–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 19–19 | 20–22 |
| Underdog | 23–6 | 12–14 |
| Overs–unders | 32–33–2 | 30–37–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 5–3 TOR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.