Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Triston McKenziePitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Reds- Jeimer CandelarioBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Buck FarmerPitching2.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9India singled to center, Fairchild scored.5–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 9J. Naylor grounded into force out to first, Bo Naylor scored, Ramírez out at second, Kwan to third.5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 8J. Naylor homered to right center (425 feet).4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Steer singled to left, De La Cruz scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3J. Naylor singled to right, Kwan scored, Freeman to third.3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Kwan doubled to left, Bo Naylor scored and Rocchio scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 9 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Candelario doubled to left, Friedl scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 51%
- ML CLE -105 / CIN -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- CIN: Elo 50.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CIN -104
- CLE +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.2 – 4.3 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +11 | CLE: Triston McKenzie: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CIN: Brent Suter: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +3 Elo | CIN 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.111th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 4th of 3021–14 | Road vs home | 17–1815th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–24 | 35–31 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–19 | 15–18 |
| Underdog | 21–5 | 20–13 |
| Overs–unders | 32–30–2 | 31–34–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 2–2 CIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.