Cleveland Guardians at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Will BrennanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Davis SchneiderBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Schneider singled to center, Clement scored.3–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Giménez singled to right, Rocchio scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Brennan homered to left (349 feet).2–0
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Schneemann doubled to center, Brennan scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 58%
- ML CLE +130 / TOR -150
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 51.6%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -138
- CLE +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.4 – 4.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +5 | CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +11 Elo | TOR 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.925th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 4th of 3022–15 | Road vs home | 16–1514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–25 | 32–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 19–19 | 20–21 |
| Underdog | 22–6 | 12–14 |
| Overs–unders | 32–32–2 | 30–36–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 4–3 TOR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.