Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting2-5
- Tanner BibeePitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 11 K
Reds- Jeimer CandelarioBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Candelario homered to right (343 feet), Benson scored and Friedl scored.2–4
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 32–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 22–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 5Giménez grounded out to second, Ramírez scored, J. Naylor to second.2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Fry walked, Kwan scored, J. Naylor to second, Ramírez to third.1–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 41–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Candelario homered to center (404 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 50%
- ML CLE -110 / CIN -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- CIN: Elo 47.7%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CIN -100
- CLE -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.8 – 3.8 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +8 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +16 Elo | CLE 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.314th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.111th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.4 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 4th of 3022–14 | Road vs home | 17–1920th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–24 | 35–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–19 | 15–19 |
| Underdog | 22–5 | 20–13 |
| Overs–unders | 32–31–2 | 31–35–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 3–2 CIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.