Cleveland Guardians at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Daniel SchneemannBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rocchio homered to right center (391 feet), Schneemann scored.6–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 6Schneemann homered to left (355 feet), Brennan scored.4–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 5Barger singled to center, Springer scored, Kirk to second.2–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 5Varsho homered to right center (398 feet), Horwitz scored, Schneider scored and Guerrero Jr. scored.2–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 5Freeman grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Rocchio scored, Kwan out at second, Bo Naylor to third.2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 5Kwan singled to left, Schneemann scored, Bo Naylor to second, Rocchio to third.1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Clement homered to left center (392 feet), Barger scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 52%
- ML CLE +100 / TOR -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 51.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -109
- CLE +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.7 – 3.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +18 | CLE: Ben Lively: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +8 Elo | TOR 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3023–16 | Road vs home | 17–1614th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–26 | 33–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 19–19 | 21–22 |
| Underdog | 23–7 | 12–14 |
| Overs–unders | 32–34–2 | 30–38–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 5–4 TOR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.