Boston Red Sox at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Dominic SmithBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Frankie MontasPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Devers hit sacrifice fly to left, Duran scored, Refsnyder to second.4–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 8Refsnyder singled to right, Rafaela scored, Duran to third.3–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Wong doubled to center, Abreu scored.2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 5Smith homered to center (419 feet).1–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3De La Cruz homered to right center (407 feet).0–3
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Steer homered to left (405 feet), Candelario scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 52%
- ML BOS -120 / CIN +100
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 51.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -109
- CIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.8 – 4.7 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −9 | BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Frankie Montas: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +12 Elo | BOS 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 4th of 3022–16 | Road vs home | 19–1916th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–41 | 40–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–25 | 17–20 |
| Underdog | 23–16 | 23–15 |
| Overs–unders | 34–40–2 | 32–42–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 1–3 CIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.