Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Santiago EspinalBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Pirates- Ke'Bryan HayesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Hayes homered to left (382 feet).2–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 5Espinal homered to left (376 feet), India scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 54%
- ML CIN -130 / PIT +110
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- CIN: Elo 52.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.4 – 4.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −9 | CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +20 Elo | CIN 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 20th of 3016–19 | Road vs home | 17–1716th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–34 | 36–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–19 | 9–20 |
| Underdog | 22–15 | 27–14 |
| Overs–unders | 32–39–1 | 36–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 5–9 PIT in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.