Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Charlie BlackmonBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Blackmon homered to right center (412 feet).5–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 8Reynolds singled to center, McCutchen scored.5–1
- 8Pitch 11 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 9 : Ball 34–1
- 8Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 24–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 7Suwinski homered to right center (459 feet), Hayes scored.4–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 6McCutchen homered to center (448 feet).2–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 5Tovar tripled to left, Blackmon scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Reynolds homered to right (432 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockies 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- COL 50%
- ML PIT -110 / COL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 43%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 39%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.7 pts
- COL: Elo 39.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- COL -100
- PIT -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 5.3 – 5.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1430 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −27 | PIT: Carmen Mlodzinski: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 1.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +75 Elo | PIT 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 20th of 3016–19 | Road vs home | 13–1521st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–33 | 33–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–19 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 25–14 | 32–30 |
| Overs–unders | 35–31 | 37–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 6–3 COL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.