Colorado Rockies at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Louis VarlandPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Santana homered to right (381 feet), Castro scored.5–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 8McMahon homered to right (441 feet).5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 7Buxton homered to center (439 feet), Castro scored.4–2
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 34–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 6Toglia hit sacrifice fly to right, McMahon scored.4–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 6Tovar homered to left center (390 feet), Blackmon scored and Doyle scored.3–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 65%
- ML COL +175 / MIN -210
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 60.8%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -186
- COL +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.6 – 4.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1431 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −7 | COL: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.91 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Louis Varland: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +76 Elo | MIN 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 63.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.314th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 29th of 3010–26 | Road vs home | 17–1311th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–31 | 30–36 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 15–24 |
| Underdog | 31–29 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders | 35–28 | 28–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 1–3 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.