Colorado Rockies at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching3.0 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
Twins- Royce LewisBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stallings hit a ground rule double, Trejo scored.9–17
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–17
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking8–17
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 38–17
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking8–17
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 28–17
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–17
- 8Kepler hit sacrifice fly to right, Castro scored, Vázquez to third.8–17
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–17
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–16
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–16
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking8–17
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–16
- 8Vázquez doubled to left, Santana scored and Farmer scored, Castro to third.8–16
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–16
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 28–14
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–14
- 8Farmer singled to left, Buxton scored, Santana to second.8–14
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–14
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 18–13
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–13
- 8Santana reached on infield single to second, Miranda scored, Buxton to third.8–13
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–13
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–12
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 18–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–12
- 8Miranda doubled to right, Correa scored and Lewis scored.8–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–10
- 8Amador grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Toglia scored, Montero out at second, Cave to third.8–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–10
- 8McMahon scored and Stallings scored on error, Cave safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Correa, Toglia safe at third on error.7–10
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–10
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 35–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 25–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–10
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 69%
- ML COL +205 / MIN -250
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 62.7%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- MIN -218
- COL +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.9 – 4.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1432 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −4 | COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +90 Elo | MIN 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 68.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 67.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.314th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 29th of 3011–26 | Road vs home | 17–1411th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–31 | 30–37 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 15–25 |
| Underdog | 32–29 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders | 36–28 | 29–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–3 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.