Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jeimer CandelarioBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Brewers- Joey OrtizBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryse WilsonPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Candelario doubled to center, De La Cruz scored.1–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 5Ortiz homered to left center (398 feet), Chourio scored and Turang scored.0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 55%
- ML CIN +115 / MIL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- MIL: Elo 57.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -124
- CIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.0 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +9 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Jared Koenig: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +52 Elo | MIL 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.96th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 9th of 3016–16 | Road vs home | 20–128th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–32 | 38–30 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–19 | 14–19 |
| Underdog | 21–13 | 24–11 |
| Overs–unders | 32–36–1 | 39–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 5–12 MIL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 17.