Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Chourio singled to right, Adames scored, Chourio to second, Ortiz to third, Bauers thrown out at home.6–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 9Ortiz walked, Yelich scored, Bauers to second, Adames to third.6–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 46–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 36–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging6–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 26–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 6Perkins scored on throwing error by third baseman Candelario, Turang safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Candelario, Turang safe at second on error.6–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 16–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 6Friedl singled to center, India scored.6–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 5Adames grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Contreras scored on error, Yelich safe at third on throwing error by shortstop De La Cruz.5–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 5Candelario homered to right center (423 feet), De La Cruz scored.5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5De La Cruz tripled to right, Friedl scored.3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4India singled to right, Fraley scored, Stephenson to third.2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Contreras homered to center (417 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Friedl homered to right (385 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 61%
- ML CIN +145 / MIL -170
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- MIL: Elo 59.4%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- MIL -154
- CIN +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.3 – 4.2 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +7 | CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +66 Elo | MIL 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.96th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 16th of 3015–16 | Road vs home | 20–115th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–32 | 38–29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–19 | 14–18 |
| Underdog | 20–13 | 24–11 |
| Overs–unders | 31–36–1 | 38–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 4–12 MIL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 16.