Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Nick GonzalesBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jared JonesPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting4-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Ty BlachPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Goodman grounded out to second, Cave scored.4–16
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–16
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–15
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–15
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–15
- 8Toglia homered to left (370 feet), McMahon scored, Montero scored and N. Jones scored.4–15
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–15
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–15
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–15
- 8McMahon doubled to right, Tovar scored.4–11
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–10
- 7Goodman homered to center (429 feet), Cave scored.4–10
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–8
- 7Cave singled to center, N. Jones scored.4–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 7N. Gonzales grounded out to shortstop, Reynolds scored.4–7
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 7McCutchen homered to left (433 feet).3–7
- 7Pitch 9 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 22–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–7
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 61%
- ML PIT -175 / COL +150
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- PIT: Elo 53.5%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- PIT -159
- COL +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 5.8 – 4.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1428 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | 0 | PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: Ty Blach: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +24 Elo | PIT 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 16th of 3017–19 | Road vs home | 13–1625th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–33 | 33–33 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–19 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 26–14 | 32–30 |
| Overs–unders | 35–32 | 37–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 7–3 COL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.